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January 28, 2019 Timothy Prickett Morgan
The power programs line, buoyed through the deliver of excessive-conclusion vitality E980 methods for massive AIX and IBM i jobs, a gradual stream of IBM i device upgrades, and a few traction in power-primarily based Linux clusters for HPC and records analytics workloads, grew to become in a fine looking sterling closing quarter for 2018, and capped three prior quarters of boom everyone the artery through 2018 to swirl in a complete yr of increase.
that you would exist able to’t inform how a sterling deal increase, of path, but in the lead sage of this situation of The four Hundred, I took my surest stab at modeling the quarterly profits circulation of the vitality programs line seeing that the climb of 2018, and based on that model, I reckon that the energy techniques line booked just a tad over $1.6 billion in income, up eight.eight % compared to 2017’s figures and marking the primary year of boom since 2011 and probably the most stagy boom they now bask in probably viewed in plenty longer.
Jim Kavanaugh, IBM’s chief monetary officer, talked in short with Wall street analysts about how the vitality methods line did in this Fall 2018. “vigor earnings changed into up 10 %, pushed by Linux and continued efficient adoption throughout their modern Power9-primarily based architecture,” Kavanaugh noted. “within the fourth quarter, they completed the unencumber of their subsequent technology Power9 processors in the high conclusion, and they had efficient adoption in both the low and excessive-end techniques. Their Power9 programs are designed for coping with advanced analytics, cloud environments, and facts intensive workloads in AI, SAP HANA, and Unix markets and they now bask in prolonged HANA certification to their Power9 high conclusion. within the fourth quarter, they had efficient preliminary traction with their modern offerings that optimize each hardware and software for AI, similar to PowerAI imaginative and prescient, which they added within the second half of 2018. And we've pretty much achieved the deployment of their supercomputers at the U.S. department of power labs in the quarter.”
That was a $325 million deal, which IBM has been booking everyone through 2018 as machines rolled in and the “Summit” computer at alrightRidge country wide Laboratory and the “Sierra” computer at Lawrence Livermore countrywide Laboratory handed ranges of qualification exams.
What they would basically want to understand is how 2019 is calling, and this is everyone Kavanaugh needed to shriek when poked that query: “We proceed to convey modern innovation to market to carry cost for their consumers in their Power9 structure, which is resonating well in the marketplace. And they received grotesque acceptance, and grew 10 p.c within the fourth quarter. They hope in an application to continue to play out in 2019. So they bask in acquired a superb e-book of enterprise prerogative here and some tailwinds at us.”
Tailwinds are everyone the time decent, if you are attempting to figure up for misplaced time in specific, in order that’s first rate.
So how did the leisure of colossal Blue fare? Let’s rob a look. within the final quarter of 2018, IBM’s revenues dipped via three.5 p.c to $2176 billion and web revenue turned into $1.95 billion, which become twice as colossal in magnitude because the loss that IBM stated in this Fall 2017 because of some write-offs. IBM pushed $2.sixty two billion in device and storage hardware and working systems to exterior customers in the fourth quarter, down 21.three p.c, plus an extra $238 million in iron to different IBM contraptions. IBM had $551 million in pre-tax income for the combined internal and external income, which became 19.three percent of revenue. My most suitable guess, due to the fact IBM doesn’t supply out specific numbers, is that IBM bought $2.17 billion in hardware (servers and storage) plus an additional $447 million in working programs.
in the event you add everyone of the foundation working equipment, middleware, database, programming tools, tech guide, and financing on desirable of the equipment z and power techniques lines, plus external disk, flash, and tape storage, IBM has rather an brilliant business. a lot higher than the gadget hardware and working system figures that it experiences on a quarterly foundation to Wall road. prerogative here is the breakdown of IBM’s earnings throughout its divisions, which is the starting component for estimating IBM’s genuine and actual programs company:
From this, I drill down into each division and rate how much of each and every division’s earnings is principally for IBM’s own gadget z and power programs structures and the connected storage product revenue. in case you figure some guesses – and that i bask in to, as will they everyone outdoor of the enterprise – then a believe for the actual programs enterprise emerges. And this doesn't embrace compute, storage, and networking capability sold on the IBM Cloud, which is a further animal entirely.
Suffice it to affirm that this is a sterling looking colossal enterprise certainly, with primitive gains throughout the mixed platforms which are in the sweep of fifty five p.c to 60 percent of revenues customarily. here is relatively respectable, and is a an indigent lot more advantageous techniques trade than IBM itself talks about. within the fourth quarter, I reckon that this company in fact declined by eleven percent or so, to $7.41 billion, but that changed into above everyone as a result of the device z14 mainframe upgrade cycle running its path after five quarters of revenue. IBM talked about in its document that gadget z revenues bask in been down forty four percent yr-on-yr within the fourth quarter at constant alien money, and that in reality harm. energy systems revenue cannot, as yet, figure up the change.
That observed, vigour techniques earnings are on the upward thrust, and bask in extraordinary prospects in HPC, records analytics, computer learning. in-reminiscence processing, and different superior workloads as smartly as the consistent freddy ERP applications which bask in been on IBM i and AIX systems for a long time. it's problematic to believe about that IBM can push revenue up as high as they were back in 2010 through 2012, but it can find some of how back there. One other aspect: I don't bask in any theory what power programs working IBM i revenue are, but what I consequence recognize is that IBM i sales had been riding revenue enlarge everyone the artery through 2018, and if you add in the software, functions, and financing atop of this, here is nevertheless a reasonably large and really profitable company. Which is a worthy thing for the lengthy-time age potentialities of IBM i.linked reports
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Expectations bask in been a microscopic bit muted going into international trade Machines' (NYSE:IBM) fourth quarter. After three successive quarters of yr-over-12 months income increases, growth eluded IBM in the third quarter, because the favorable forex change quotes that had buoyed outcomes became in opposition t the company, taking flat year-over-12 months growth and turning it poor.
In its results launched on Jan. 22, IBM printed that it suffered the equal sick outcomes in the fourth quarter, as revenue once more declined 12 months over 12 months. still, an unexpected revenue beat and better-than-anticipated information gave buyers cause for optimism.blended effects
For the fourth quarter, IBM generated earnings of $21.8 billion, down three% 12 months over yr and in line with analysts' consensus estimates. Adjusted net profits, which excludes $1.9 billion in tax prices, came in at $four.4 billion, resulting in adjusted income per share of $4.87, ahead of expectations of $4.84.
similar to closing quarter, international forex change prices took a toll, as income would were down just 1% after adjusting for alternate fee ameliorations.
predominant enterprise Segments
this Fall 2017
$5.forty three billion
global enterprise services
technology features & cloud systems
$8.ninety three billion
$2.sixty two billion
each and every of the most significant company segments become affected to a pair diploma by the adjustments in currency.
salary from cognitive solutions became essentially flat year over 12 months (up 2% in regular forex), led by means of boom in solutions software, including analytics and synthetic intelligence offerings.
international enterprise functions jumped 4% yr over year (or 6% adjusting for currency) from electricity in consulting, application management, and global process services.
technology features and cloud structures fell three% 12 months over 12 months (or flat in consistent forex), the influence of boom in hybrid cloud salary.
techniques salary fell 21% (down 20% adjusted for currency alterations), essentially the consequence of the winding down of the refresh cycle for the IBM Z server.The a lot-ballyhooed strategic imperatives
IBM has been focusing tons of its materials on a transition from its legacy corporations to its so-called strategic imperatives -- high-increase next-era corporations that encompass analytics, cloud computing, protection, and cellular.
That initiative is producing some degree of success. revenue from this neighborhood of businesses accelerated to $eleven.5 billion everyone the artery through the fourth quarter, accounting for fifty three% of the enterprise's salary. For the complete year, strategic imperatives amounted to $39.eight billion, 50% of IBM's total sales. The enterprise mentioned that the community changed into negatively impacted through the IBM Z server refresh cycle winding down, however IBM saw double-digit boom throughout analytics, cloud, and protection aside from the IBM Z.purple Hat
right through the enterprise's salary conference designation to talk about the results, IBM's management provided more particulars for its excessive-profile acquisition of pink Hat (NYSE:RHT). This quantities to a $34 billion guess on the hybrid cloud-computing market. in the joint press unlock motto the deal, the businesses mentioned that "research suggests that eighty % of company workloads bask in yet to movement to the cloud, held back by the proprietary nature of ultra-modern cloud market."
IBM CFO Jim Kavanaugh mentioned agencies "are concerned concerning the relaxed portability of statistics and workloads across cloud environments, about consistency in administration, [about] safety protocols across clouds, and in fending off supplier lock-in." He additionally referred to IBM's "decade-lengthy partnership" with purple Hat as featuring momentum for the future, asserting that the deal "positions us because the chief in hybrid, multi-cloud world."
The acquisition is expected to shut within the 2nd half of 2019.a notice forward
For 2019, IBM is guiding for diluted revenue per share (EPS) of at least $12.45 and adjusted EPS of at the least $13.ninety. The incompatibility of $1.45 is constituted of acquisition-linked fees associated with purple Hat, retirement-connected expenses, and costs regarding the enactment of tax reform. The enterprise additionally projects free cash stream of $12 billion. This tips excludes any bask in an consequence on from the pink Hat acquisition, as tons will rely upon when the deal closes.
IBM's projections just a microscopic surpassed analysts' consensus estimates, which referred to as for adjusted EPS of $13.79 on earnings of $seventy eight.82 billion. The larger-than-expected advice became welcome information for buyers, who bid up the stock via eight% within the wake of its profits report.
IBM became able to proximate the 12 months with greater than 50% of its revenue from strategic imperatives, amounting to $39.eight billion. to set this into context, IBM had set a point to attain $40 billion, or about 40% of revenue by 2018. The trade nonetheless has an extended artery to gad sustain brisk boom, but IBM is making growth on the lengthy and winding road.
Danny Vena has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley idiot has no position in any of the stocks outlined. The Motley fool has a disclosure policy.
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January 28, 2019 Timothy Prickett Morgan
It is incredibly difficult to try to find a ply on how IBM’s overall systems trade and then its Power Systems portion of that trade is doing, something that I voiced frustration about last summer when talking about colossal Blue’s monetary results for the second quarter of 2018. At the time, I told you I would rob a whack at trying to build a model of Power Systems sales to give us a sense of how the hardware platform is doing, and I took the first stab at this in the wake of IBM announcing its monetary results for the fourth quarter of last year.
I didn’t intend to consequence this at this time, but I started to figure a summary table of the growth and decline rates for Power Systems revenues for machines sold externally to customers and resellers – it was going to exist a simple table, just something to spice up the coverage on the final quarter of last year. But as often happens with me, my curiosity took over and I just kept pile the table out everyone the artery back to 2010 with the growth and decline rates of Power Systems hardware sales each quarter both as reported and at constant currency (meaning exchange rate neutral year-on-year). Back in 2009 and 2010, IBM actually gave figures for both, but in 2015 the company only talked about growth rates for its products in constant currency. But you can labor it backwards, sort of, by seeing the incompatibility between IBM’s reported growth and constant currency growth overall and applying the incompatibility to the constant currency Power Systems rates. If you consequence that, you find a chart that looks infatuation this:
Can you Tell – really Tell – how the Power Systems trade is doing if you just rob the quarterly percent changes that IBM supplies and plot them out? Maybe you can, but I certain as heck can’t. I mean, I find a sense each quarter of how the Power Systems line is going – in constant currency, up 3 percent in Q1, up 4 percent in Q2, up 17 percent in Q3, and up 10 percent in Q4 is what IBM has told Wall Street in its last four quarterly reports. Up is always good. And I can sort of adjust that to find an as-reported growth rate (which IBM used to supply but has not since 2015); in some cases, currency exchange seems to assuage and in others, as with the past year, it hurts.
When you average it everyone out, from my model at least, it looks infatuation the Power Systems hardware trade – not including operating systems and integrated databases infatuation the IBM i platform has bundled with it – grew by 8.8 percent in 2018 to just hair over $1.6 billion. ( I will account for how I got there in a second.) This is not too shabby. It’s not the 35-ish percent that the overall server market might grow in 2018 – the fourth quarter figures from IDC and Gartner won’t exist out for several weeks, so they don’t know as yet – but it certain is better than the kicks in the teeth that Power hardware took in years gone by.
Still, I infatuation existent numbers. And in the absence of them, I feel compelled to rate them. So if they bask in the constant currency growth rates each quarter for Power Systems from colossal Blue itself, everyone they necessity is a starting point for revenues in any given year and then they can apply the estimated actual quarterly growth or decline rates (pulled from the overall currency effects that IBM as a gross experienced) to this data and cascade it forward. I looked at the RISC/Itanium Unix server revenue figures for 2010 from Gartner, took my best guess at how much of this was hardware and how much was operating system software, backed out the software, and then added in how much sales I thought were coming in from Linux (next to zero) and IBM i (about 15 percent of the overall sales, but maybe 50 percent of shipments, I reckon) in 2010 to find that starting point.
I don’t title this is perfect, but it allows us to descry the ebb and flood of revenues rather than just a bunch of percent changes. The shape of the data is mostly prerogative (it depends on how closely currency effects on Power Systems sales hew to the overall currency effects on IBM’s entire product portfolio each quarter), but I believe this is a few points at best and the shape I accord that the height of the bars could raise or Fall depending on those initial 2010 revenue assumptions. But the shape is not going to change that much.
So, if you consequence everyone of that math for the quarterly numbers everyone the artery back to 2009, the belly of the worthy Recession, then this is the benign of chart you get:
I tried to figure certain that the revenues didn’t violate my sensibilities about how these sales compared to IBM System z and storage hardware sales. I believe the chart above has the prerogative shape, and probably proximate to the prerogative magnitude of sales. I can adjust it as I find more data. Some of the fourth quarters were quite good, as you can see, even in 2009, 2010, and 2011, and that was because large ERP systems were largely insulated from the effects of the worthy Recession until a few years later. You can sort of pick out the generic trend, and it certain looks infatuation a rebound is underway here in 2017 and 2018.
The magnitude of this uptick – and how far revenues of Power Systems bask in fallen off in recent years as Moore’s Law increases give people 2X the performance in each jump for the identical revenue – becomes a bit more obvious if you annualize the data, infatuation in the chart below, which is probably more just given the lumpiness of sales of Power Systems and the less-than-regular timing of machine rollouts during some of these years. Here is the estimated annual sales of Power Systems iron based on my model:
For those of you who infatuation to descry the numbers and the growth rates, here is a table:
The last time that IBM seems to bask in seen annual growth in Power Systems was artery back in 2011, and the declines in 2013 and 2016 were quite bad. Hopefully IBM can find more traction with Linux on Power and boost revenues even more than it has, and provide a colossal foundation for AIX and IBM i platforms to continue to exhort upon. That’s the bet.RELATED STORIES
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Big Blue introduces 55 modern or enhanced servers, storage products to assuage businesses figure better decisions, operate more efficiently.Note: ESJ’s editors carefully select vendor-issued press releases about modern or upgraded products and services. They bask in edited and/or condensed this release to highlight key features but figure no claims as to the accuracy of the vendor's statements.
In the largest update to its systems portfolio this year, IBM today announced 55 modern and updated server and storage technologies that can assuage clients gain actionable insights from data, enlarge IT capacity, and deliver modern services faster to create profitable trade opportunities.
The modern and enhanced offerings embrace affordable trade analytics systems, automated tools for implementing security and compliance standards, and starter kits for establishing private clouds.
As the world's increasing demand for data and services puts a strain on IT resources, organizations become trapped in a vicious cycle in which a rigid IT infrastructure and necessity of trusted data leads to reactive or risky conclusion making. Attempts to overcome these challenges through additional IT investments often result in a more sprawling and costly infrastructure.
The modern offerings address these challenges with smarter computing technologies for trade analytics, integrated storage, optimized systems and virtualized data centers.
Designed for Data
Companies that ply vast amounts of information necessity to exist able to dissect that data to figure better trade decisions in existent time. IBM is delivering modern entry-level trade analytics systems, accelerated database analytics, and expanded data storage options. Highlights include:
Tuned to the Task
Systems that are optimized across the infrastructure and tuned for specific tasks enable businesses of everyone sizes to achieve superior economics. IBM is providing modern technologies that automate security and compliance of virtualized environments and multi-system virtualization capabilities to reduce cumbersome IT sprawl. Highlights include:
Managed in the Cloud
IBM cloud infrastructure solutions can accelerate deployment and maximize efficiency of businesses who want to achieve rapid, supple delivery of high value services. IBM now offers solutions that assuage clients easily establish virtualized data heart environments, scale cloud file systems more efficiently and improve system utilization. Highlights include:
For more information on IBM Smarter Computing, visit www.ibm.com/smartercomputing.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) was one of the few companies quiet developing the manufacturing processes to build cutting-edge chips. Then, back in 2015, IBM completed the sale of its chip manufacturing assets to stand-alone chip manufacturer GLOBALFOUNDRIES.
Unfortunately for IBM's chip efforts -- the company quiet develops POWER processors for servers and Z-series chips for its mainframes -- GLOBALFOUNDRIES ceased development of cutting-edge chip manufacturing technology. This left IBM in necessity of a modern ally to manufacture its chip designs.
Inside an IBM computer room.More
Image source: IBM.
A microscopic while back, Nikkei Asian Review reported that this modern ally would be Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM). While GLOBALFOUNDRIES failed to bring its own seven-nanometer manufacturing technology, marketed as 7LP, into mass production, TSMC's own seven-nanometer technology is now in mass production. (If you're reading this on one of the latest iPhones or iPads, you're using a device powered by a TSMC seven-nanometer chip.)
Surprisingly enough, that report was wrong, and it seems IBM is partnering with TSMC's only existent competitor in leading-edge semiconductor logic technology: Samsung (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF).What's the deal?
On Dec. 20, IBM said that it "announced an agreement with Samsung to manufacture 7-nanometer (nm) microprocessors for IBM Power Systems, IBM Z and LinuxONE, high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and cloud offerings."
In addition, the press release claimed that "[today's] announcement moreover expands and extends the 15-year strategic process technology R&D partnership between the two companies, which, as Part of IBM's Research Alliance, includes many industry firsts such as the first NanoSheet Device innovation for sub 5nm, the production of the industry's first 7nm test chip and the first High-K Metal Gate foundry manufacturing."What does this involve for IBM and Samsung?
From IBM's perspective, the company now has a viable chip manufacturing ally to advocate the chips that power its systems. last quarter, IBM's systems trade -- which the company says "includes systems hardware and operating systems software -- generated $1.7 billion in sales, growing 1% year-over-year. That represented just 9% of the company's revenue in the quarter.
Nevertheless, that segment is large enough that IBM is going to want to continue to advocate it, and having a dependable manufacturing ally to build the microprocessors at the heart of those systems is censorious to keeping that trade alive.
As far as Samsung is concerned, this is incremental trade for its condense chip manufacturing arm. However, this is by no means a game changer for Samsung. IBM's total systems trade was $1.7 billion last quarter and just over $5.4 billion during the first three quarters of 2018. If they assume that exhort rate for the entirety of 2018, it translates into about $7.2 billion in overall system sales.
Samsung is going to exist generating revenue only for the manufacture of the main processors in these systems. Not only consequence those systems embrace many other components (chassis, power supplies, DRAM, storage, motherboards, and so on), but IBM is, naturally, marking up the raw materials costs of those systems to generate profit.
This deal certainly isn't going to add a billion dollars or more to Samsung's coffers and isn't ultimately going to exist a game changer for Samsung or even Samsung's semiconductor trade (which is primarily dominated by sales of DRAM and NAND memories), but it should drive incremental revenue and primitive profit.
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Ashraf Eassa has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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